Economic sanctions

 For understanding of dependence of the advanced country from export it is absolutely not enough to define(determine) the so-called export quota of this or that country. For example, though USA have the lowest of all industrial countries of the world the export quota, however this quota is extremely various in application to separate branches of facilities(economy). Íèæåïðèâîäèìûå the data show, that the export quota made in 1989 on such leading branch for ïëàíòàòîðñêèõ of staffs(states), as a clap(cotton), 54,8 % and on such leading branch for the whole facilities(economy) of USA, as automobiles, 14%. Hence, though in general(common) production of USA only 8-10 % fall on export, the importance of export for separate branches of facilities(economy) of USA is incommensurable more than these conditional figures. The data for 1989г. (in %) хлопок-54,8; табак-41,2; writing машины-40,1; медь-30,0; шмальц-33,3; lubricant масла-31,0; òèïîãðàôè÷åñêèå машины-29,2; sewing машины-28,0; agricultural машины-23,3; локомативы-20,8; автомобили-14,0) 1.

 Though the general(common) export quota of industrial production of Germany makes 20-25 %, the valid significance of export for german facilities(economy) will be even more. It is enough to tell, that on production of toys, musical tools, on the point mechanics and optics the export quota of Germany makes more than 50 %, on chemistry and electronics - from 30-50 of % etc. Let's recollect, that in 1990-1991гг. From all industrial production of Germany only 20 % was consumed by(with) its(her) agriculture. On a home market any of the modern advanced countries cannot find the market, which could replace the dropping out external market. Therefore it is obvious, that the sanctions used to import from country àãðåññîðà, should result in most serious shocks in a national economy of this country. By losing export, this country will fail to find of sufficient replacement on the home market. It means curtailing production, growth of unemployment, increase of crisis in an agriculture. The importance of these sanctions is increased, certainly, depending on a share(!long) of export in internal production on major branches of facilities(economy) appropriate countries. From this point of view;!from the point of view of the sanctions of a similar sort would to the greatest degree mention such countries, as Great Britain, Germany and Japan, and in the least degree such countries, as USA and France. However, we repeat, there is no such country, which without frustration national could appear, even on time, is perfect without the external market. Is clear, that the efficiency of the sanctions in this respect depends on the marked above conditions of their application by all or majority of countries.

1.2. EMBARGO ON IMPORT

 The economic sanctions in the form of prohibition of import from country - àãðåññîðà have by the problem deprivation of country, on which are applied sanctions, legal tenders necessary for import. The efficiency of these sanctions depends on the following circumstances: 1) .îò that, in what measure the country - àãðåññîð requires import; 2) .îò that, in what measure she(it) possesses other sources for payment in the form of receipts under the so-called invisible articles of a balance of payments.

 The experience of the last years has shown, that the import of country can be subjected to significant reductions.

 During the second world(global) war from the nomenclature of import of struggling countries the fancies have disappeared, the import of consumer goods was sharply reduced. All this occurs as a result of downturn of a scale of living, compression of a home consumption of the broad masses. Simultaneously there is some expansion of import of main kinds of raw material necessary for military production and production, connected to the militarian. Import under the articles of военно-raw significance, which production äåôèöèòíî in country especially is increased. This implies, that the countries to the greatest degree dependent on foreign import of the raw goods, in the least degree are capable to reduce import. In this connection we shall stay on the characteristic of import of such country, as Iraq in 1994, when this import is already compressed by conditions ïðåäâîåííîé of a conjuncture (we are founded(established) on the tables contained in statistics of international trade after 1994, issued a UN). Iraq on the basis of the further downturn of a scale of living of the workers has reduced and can even more reduce the import of food products, furs, even of tobacco, but she(it) cannot even more reduce import of ore, ìåäè, mineral oils, wool, silk, clap(cotton) and ëüíà. A minimum the third of present iraq import should be saved for want of sharpest reduction of importation in Iraq. Uneasy to itself to present, that in these conditions the complete termination(discontinuance) of export from Iraq even for want of preservation of foreign trade at a level of one third can serious complicate a rule(situation) of country.

 For valuation of the economic importance ýâåíòóàëüíîãî the applications of the sanctions to Iraq need to be taken into account specific organization âíåøíåõîçÿéñòâåííûõ of communications(connections) of this country. Having insignificant gold reserves and requiring large raw and food import, Iraq has constructed the communications(connections) with the majority of countries of the world (except USA) on áåçâàëþòíûõ accounts, on the basis of the clearing agreements. Thus import of Iraq is paid by extremely its(her) export, moreover, the import of Iraq from the given country is paid as a rule, export to the same country. This specific feature âíåøíåõîçÿéñòâåííûõ of communications(connections) of Iraq hinders transferring its(her) import from one country on other. It means, that the prohibition of export from Iraq in the certain group of countries is for facilities(economy) heavy impact, as that prohibition automatically means for Iraq the termination(discontinuance) of import from this group of countries and respective import relief and all supply of iraq import and all supply iraq хозяйства1.

 If we shall take Japan, the picture will be approximately same, with that only difference, that necessary import of Japan by virtue of some more greater its(her) dependence on the external market will be $much more(greater) and will make not less than halves of present import. The truth, import of a clap(cotton), which makes a third of all import of Japan, in case of application to Japan of economic sanctions would undergo to strong reduction, as the clap(cotton) this goes in the significant part on production of cotton fabrics for export. The reduction of export would result in import relief under this article. Nevertheless for want of of existing dependence of Japan on the external world we consider(count), that, evaluating necessary import of Japan in 50 % of its(her) normal import, we do not miss true.

 In the same rule(situation) there is a majority of countries of the world, except for Great Britain, USA and partly of France, and also several small countries (Holland, Belgium, Switzerland), which, being the creditors of the world, have the active articles of a balance of payments in the form of receipts under the credits, given by them. These active articles can in turn limited to application of the sanctions in the form of temporary suspension of payments on debts of old standing.

 Some appreciable investments abroad possess only Great Britain, USA and France. The investments of other states are rather insignificant. It is necessary also to take into account difficulty of mobilization of these capitals in case of necessity, and also aspiration separate êàïèòàëèñòîâ, engaging these investments to evade from transfer to their government.

 The efficiency of prohibition of import from country - àãðåññîðà, prohibition depriving this country legal tenders, can have an effect not at once, if countries - àãðåññîðà have significant investments abroad or significant stocks of gold, which she(it) can realize(sell) and to use for payment of the import. Significant gold reserves possess first of all USA and France, and then Great Britain and small countries - Belgium, Holland both Switzerland. Germany and Italy some appreciable stocks of gold have not. The stocks these cannot be filled up with internal production of gold, as this production is distributed on other countries.

 It goes without saying, that the efficiency of prohibition of import from country - àãðåññîðà depends on generality(universality) of this measure. If this measure will not be applied by the majority of countries of the world, she(it) will appear much less effective. It is known, that on the members the UN on the average is necessary approximately 88 % of world(global) trade.

 The sanctions on the idea should induce àãðåññîðà to stop aggression; they should deprive of his(its) means for continuation of aggression. It is possible only in the event that the raw embargo will deprive country - àãðåññîðà of the most essential means necessary for continuation of war. The country, by which the embargo is applied, should require import raw material have paramount significance. Only in that case of economic sanctions can be effective. It means, that the efficiency of the sanctions is increased in a proportion of growing dependence of this or that country from foreign sources of raw material.

 Perfectly understanding it, ýâåíòóàëüíûå àãðåññîðû, first of all Germany, and then Japan and Italy accepted intensive measures for creation of independence of the country from world(global) facilities(economy), for reception inside country of the foodstuffs and raw material necessary for management of war. Despite of these successes, it is possible definitely to tell, that there is no country, which would not depend on foreign raw import.

 Determining significance in the world(global) coal market have USA, Great Britain and Germany. Despite of it is have a rather insignificant mineral industry, Poland in view of narrow capacity of a home market is also big exporter óãëÿ. The important place in the coal market is taken by(with) Russia, which export, truth, is insignificant owing to a huge home consumption.

 On iron ore the world(global) manufacturers - France, Russia and USA. However production of USA hardly(with an effort) covers a home consumption, and on export nothing acts(arrives).

 A determining role on world(global) õëîïêîâîì the market belongs to USA, India, Egypt and Brasil. The large manufacturer is as well China, which consumption is great.

 On a wool the large manufacturers - Australia, Argentina, ÞÀÐ, New Zealand and USA. The production of USA completely is consumed by a home market, and this country is import ё rum of a wool.

 In the market of aluminium the leading role belongs to USA, Germany, France, Norway, and also Canada.

 On antimony the determining role belongs to China.

 On àñáåñòó the world(global) manufacturers - Canada, Russia, ÞÀÐ.

 On áîêñèòàì the managing role in the market is taken by(with) France, partly USA. The largest manufacturers are also Italy and Yugoslavia.

 On õðîìîâîé the ore behind Russia as the large manufacturer is followed by(with) Turkey. An essential role plays also New Êàëåäîíèÿ.

 On ìåäè the large manufacturer are by USA, the significant production is present also in Canada and Chile.

 On ôîñôàòàì the managing role belongs Ñîåäèí ё ííûì to Staffs(states), France and Germany.

 On lead the managing role belongs to Canada, Australia and Mexico. The production in Ñîåäèí ё ííûõ Staffs(states), France and Germany is significant.

 On lead the managing role belongs to Canada, Australia and Mexico. The production in Ñîåäèí ё ííûõ Staffs(states) and then in Spain and Germany is significant. However, this product is present in the majority of countries.

 The manganese in a fair quantity is present only in Russia and India.

 Íèêåëü mainly is present in Canada. The rather significant production is present at France - In New Êàëåäîíèè.

 The sulfur is present mainly in Ñîåäèí ё ííûõ Staffs(states) and Italy.

 Ïèðèòû are distributed between sets of countries of the world.

 Âîëüôðàì is present mainly in China and India.

 Zinc - at a fair quantity of countries, including at Germany.

 Êàäìèé - in USA, Mexico, Canada, Australia and in France.

 Mercury - in USA, Italy and Spain.

 Platinum - in Russia, and also in Colombia, Canada, ЮАР1.

 From íèæåñëåäóþùåãî of transfer it is visible, as the dependence on the foreign market of separate countries on îïðåäåë ё ííûì to the goods is great.

 Great Britain on a clap(cotton), antimony, àñáåñòó, áîêñèòàì, õðîìîâîé to ore, ìàãíåçèòó, manganese, mercury, ìîëèáäåíó, íèêåëþ, platinum, rubber, sulfur - complete dependence on the foreign market; on graphite, lead, petroleum, tin, âîëüôðàìó, wool, zinc - almost complete dependence.

 France on õðîìó, clap(cotton), ìàãíåçèòó, íèêåëþ, rubber, tin, âîëüôðàìó - complete dependence; on ìåäè, graphite, lead, manganese, petroleum, sulfur, wool, zinc - almost complete dependence; on antimony and óãëþ - significant dependence.

 Germany on áîêñèòàì, õðîìó, clap(cotton), mercury, platinum, rubber, tin, âîëüôðàìó, wool - significant dependence.

 Italy on õðîìó, íèêåëþ, platinum, rubber, tin and âîëüôðàìó - complete dependence; on óãëþ, ìåäè, clap(cotton), iron, lead, manganese, petroleum, wool, zinc - almost complete dependence.

 Japan on áîêñèòàì, clap(cotton), íèêåëþ, rubber, wool - complete dependence; on antimony, iron, lead, ìàãíåçèòó, mercury, petroleum, platinum, tin, âîëüôðàìó, zinc - almost complete dependence.

 Poland on àíòèìîíèþ, áîêñèòàì, õðîìó, ìåäè, clap(cotton), graphite, ìàãíåçèòó, manganese, mercury, íèêåëþ, platinum, rubber, tin, âîëüôðàìó - complete dependence; on iron and wool - significant dependence.

 Ñîåäèí ё ííûå Staffs(states) on antimony, íèêåëþ, rubber, tin - complete dependence; on õðîìó and manganese - significant dependence.

 Of their analysis âûøåïðèâåä ё ííûõ of the data follows, that main countries have in the hands the control of major raw branches, is Great Britain, USA, Франция1.

 The analysis supports all ïðèâåä ё ííûõ of the data the assumption, put forward by us,, that any country is not completely independent from world(global) facilities(economy). USA possess main sources of raw material, however and this country depends on foreign importation under such decisive articles of military import, as íèêåëü, rubber and tin. Is characteristic, what exactly these raw branches almost completely are supervised by the main contender of USA - England. On the other hand, England having in the world rather greater independence, âñ ё represents compact íàðîäíî - economic whole. Âñ ё it can result that in large war with the powerful contender, engaging strong fleet, British empire as the unity can turn to fiction. Between that Great Britain depends on world(global) facilities(economy) almost on all major raw branches, since a clap(cotton) and finishing rubber and petroleum.

 Thus, despite of all àâòàðêè÷åñêèå óñòðåìëåíèÿ of countries preparing to new world(global) áîéíå, it was not possible by him(it) till now it will be not possible hereinafter îñòè÷ü of stable independence of world(global) facilities(economy). The limits àâòàðêè÷åñêèì óñòðåìëåíèÿì are fixed largely ðèðîäíûì by distribution of natural riches. The successes of a science have managed to a certain extent ìÿã÷èòü this natural division of labour. So, already there is a synthetic petroleum, rubber and apparently synthetic clap(cotton). However seller's price of these productions a synthetic clap(cotton). However seller's price of these productions in the world åù ё does not allow completely to replace natural kinds of raw material synthetic. Furthermore(in addition to) and the modern science åù ё has not reached complete replacement of all kinds of raw material artificial or substitutes. As far as it is known, åù ё the replacements for example such colour metals, as tin and íèêåëü have not found to themselves.

 Taking into account these circumstances, ýâåíòóàëüíûå àãðåññîðû go not only on a line of expansion of internal production of scarce kinds of raw material and experimental ïîñòàíîâêè÷åñêèé a clap(cotton). However seller's price of these productions in the world åù ё does not allow completely to replace natural kinds ñû

Ðüÿ synthetic. Furthermore(in addition to) and the modern science åù ё has not reached complete replacement all

Х kinds of raw material artificial or substitutes. As far as it is known, åù ё the replacements for example such colour metals, as tin and íèêåëü have not found to themselves.

 Taking into account these circumstances, ýâåíòóàëüíûå àãðåññîðû go not only on a line of expansion of internal production of scarce kinds of raw material and experimental ïîñòàíîâêáùåíèé. Opposite(on the contrary), such countries, as Italy, Japan and Germany, in view of availability in these countries of the powerful productive device for want of of poverty by natural raw resources would be essentially constrained in the actions by application of embargo on main kinds of raw material.

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