Climate change

updating of the baseline calculation in light of new economic assumptions

regarding energy prices, economic growth, and technology improvements,

among other factors. In 1993, the first U.S. submission projected year 2000

baseline emissions to be 106 MMTCE above their 1990 levels; with current

program funding, emissions are now projected to exceed 1990 levels by 188

MMTCE. Two principal factors are responsible:

The analysis used to develop CCAP significantly underestimated the

reductions that would be needed by programs to return emissions to 1990

levels by the year 2000. This was due to several factors, including lower-

than-expected fuel prices, strong economic growth, regulatory limitations

within and outside of CCAP, and improved information on emissions of some

potent greenhouse gases.

In addition, diminished levels of funding by Congress have affected both

CCAP programs and other federal programs that reduce emissions, limiting

their effectiveness.

While neither the measures initiated in 1993 nor the additional actions

developed since then and included in this report will be adequate to meet

the emissions goal enunciated by the President, they have significantly

reduced emissions below growth rates that otherwise would have occurred.

Based on current funding levels, the revised action plan is expected to

reduce emissions by 76 MMTCE in the year 2000--or 70 percent of the

reductions projected in the CCAP. Annual energy cost savings to businesses

and consumers from CCAP actions are anticipated to be $10 billion (1995

dollars) by the year 2000. Even greater reductions are estimated from these

measures in the post-2000 period: reductions of 169 MMTCE are projected for

2010, and 230 MMTCE for 2020. Annual energy savings are projected to grow

to $50 billion (1995 dollars) in the year 2010.

A separate component of this chapter addresses the U.S. Initiative on

Joint Implementation. Projects undertaken through this initiative allow

private-sector partners to offset emissions from domestic activities

through reductions achieved in other countries. The Climate Convention

established a pilot program for joint implementation at the first meeting

of the Conference of the Parties. Guidelines for reporting under the pilot

program were established by the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and

Technological Advice at its fifth session in February 1997. This report

uses those guidelines to report on project activity.

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